Estimating components of ICT expenditure: a model-based approach with applicability to short time-series

This paper develops a microeconomic model-based approach to forecast national information and communications technology expenditure that is helpful when only very short time-series are available. The model specification incorporates parameters for network effects and national e-readiness. Finally, the model allows for observed non-homotheticity and ‘noise’ found in sample data, with the latter attributed to country-specific influences.ICT forecasts; short time-series; microeconomic modeling

Economic determinants of global mobile telephony growth

This study examines the substitution effect between fixed-line and mobile telephony while controlling for the consumption externality associated with telephone networks. A dynamic demand model is estimated using a global telecommunications panel dataset comprised of 56 countries from 1995–2000. Estimation results show the presence of a substantial substitution effect. Additionally income and own-price elasticities are reported. Analysis of impulse responses for price, income and network size indicate substantial mobile telephone growth is yet to be realised. However, price ceilings imposed in the fixed-line network can retard the growth of the mobile network.

Residential broadband subscription demand: an econometric analysis of Australian choice experiment data

The recent roll-out of fibre-optic cable suggests that the willingness of households in passed communities to subscribe to networked services is an important issue. This paper studies the determination of the demand for network subscription. Through a discrete choice model the effect of installation and rental price on the likelihood of subscription is analysed. The logit regression is based on choice experiment (stated preference)subscription data obtained from a national survey of households. Limitations of this preliminary work and suggestions for future research are discussed.Broadband subscription demand

Internet network externalities

Abstract: A driving force behind the emergence of the ‘new’ or information economy is the growth of the internet network capacity. A fundamental problem in mapping this dynamic is the lack of an acceptable theoretical framework through which to direct empirical investigations. Most of the models in the literature on network externalities have been developed in a static framework, with the externalities viewed as instantaneous or self-fulfilling. The model specified here builds on the received theory from several sources to extend these features and develops a dynamic model that is both capable of econometric estimation and which provides as an output a direct measure of the network effect. Accordingly, the main goal of this paper is to find the magnitude of the external effect on internet network growth. In addition, this paper illustrates the ability of the panel data to generate estimates of structural parameters capable of explaining internet host growth.Information; network externalities; internet; growth

Forecasting telecommunications data with linear models

For telecommunication companies to successfully manage their business, companies rely on mapping future trends and usage patterns. However, the evolution of telecommunications technology and systems in the provision of services renders imperfections in telecommunications data and impinges on a company’s’ ability to properly evaluate and plan their business. ITU Recommendation E.507 provides a selection of econometric models for forecasting these trends. However, no specific guidance is given. This paper evaluates whether simple extrapolation techniques in Recommendation E.507 can generate accurate forecasts. Standard forecast error statistics—mean absolute percentage error, median absolute percentage error and percentage better—show the ARIMA, Holt and Holt-D models provide better forecasts than a random walk and other linear extrapolation methods.linear models; ITU Recommendations; telecommunications forecasting

Forecasting international bandwidth capacity using linear and ANN methods

An artificial neural network (ANN) can improve forecasts through pattern recognition of historical data. This article evaluates the reliability of ANN methods, as opposed to simple extrapolation techniques, to forecast Internet bandwidth index data that is bursty in nature. A simple feedforward ANN model is selected as a nonlinear alternative, as it is flexible enough to model complex linear or nonlinear relationships without any prior assumptions about the data generating process. These data are virtually white noise and provides a challenge to forecasters. Using standard forecast error statistics, the ANN and the simple exponential smoothing model provide modestly better forecasts than other extrapolation methodsForecasting; international bandwidth capacity

Internet economics and policy: An Australian perspective

Publicly available information indicates that the demand and supply of Internet and Internet-related services are continuing to expand at a rapid pace. Since 1997 the number of Internet service providers (facilities-based and resellers) has increased by nearly 40 per cent; the number of points-of-presence per Internet service provider has increased by five times; the number of hosts connected to the Internet has more than quadrupled; and Internet traffic has increased from six to 10 times. The emergence of electronic commerce (e-commerce), driven by this rapid adoption of Internet services and continual technological innovation, is likely to have profound economic and social impacts on Australian society. This paper provides a detailed analysis of the impact of the Internet and e-commerce, ranging from the changes in the market structure of the telecommunications industry, its role in changing the organisation of traditional markets, the emergence of new markets, and the structural shifts to employment, productivity and trade. The paper also analyses contemporary Australian regulatory responses. IIe-commerce; internet economics

Telecommunications productivity, catch-up and innovation

This study examines telecommunications productivity, technological catch-up and innovation in 74 countries for the period 1991-1995. A summary of partial productivity indicators is presented, and total factor productivity (TFP) growth is calculated using the Malmquist productivity change index. Decomposition of the Malmquist index provides preliminary evidence that developing countries can enhance productivity through catch-up. An econometric model is estimated that relates innovation to market size and two measures of market structure, viz., market concentration and private ownership. Model estimates support the Schumpeterian hypothesis that market size is conducive to innovation. However, the hypothesis that concentration (the dominant carrier's share of international message telephone service (IMTS) traffic) is positively related to innovation is rejected. Finally, the model suggests that increased private ownership of the dominant local-exchange carrier can enhance innovation.Catch-up; innovation; market structure; productivity; telecommunications

Market structure, competition, and pricing in United States international telephone service markets

Abstract—Several national governments argue international telephone prices are high because of asymmetric competition and inefficiencies in the accounting arrangements that govern the telecommunications services trade. This paper develops a model of U.S. international telephone pricing that allows for the accounting rate system and contains market-structure variables for both the U.S. and foreign ends of bilateral markets. Model estimation is on 39 bilateral telephone markets from 1991 through 1994. Parameter estimates reveal that settlement rates, market concentration, competition at either end of the bilateral market, and ownership are significant determinants of prices. These findings support initiatives promoting accounting-rate reductions and increased competition.United States international telephone service markets

Economic determinants of global mobile telephony growth

This study examines the substitution effect between fixed-line and mobile telephony while controlling for the consumption externality associated with telephone networks. A dynamic demand model is estimated using a global telecommunications panel dataset comprised of 56 countries from 1995–2000. Estimation results show the presence of a substantial substitution effect. Additionally income and own-price elasticities are reported. Analysis of impulse responses for price, income and network size indicate substantial mobile telephone growth is yet to be realised. However, price ceilings imposed in the fixed-line network can retard the growth of the mobile network.Telecommunications; fixed-line; mobile telephony